John Gruber recently linked to a comparison published by, mobile app analytics company, Flurry showing 74th day sales estimates for the Apple iPhone (1G), Motorola Droid, and Google Nexus One. From the Flurry article:
Inspecting the graph, it’s immediately clear that Nexus One sales continue to pale in comparison to iPhone 1G and Motorola Droid, with each besting Nexus One sales by roughly 8 times over the same time period.
Gruber believes that the sales aren’t all that bad considering that Google likely never intended the Nexus One to be a high-selling device:
I don’t think Google ever intended the Nexus One to be a high-selling device; it’s pretty clear from Apple’s experiments with iPhone pricing that subsidized pricing drives sales.
That seems like a plausible assumption given that the whole manner in which Google is selling the phone seems to be an experiment in changing the way in which we buy these devices. As others have noted, the low sales figures are probably a result of a side-effect of this experiment: the inability for most consumers to try out the device before purchasing.
Add to that the device’s use, in the U.S., of the T-Mobile specific 3G band and a single subsidized-price-plan option. Given that the device has limited appeal to anyone not on T-Mobile’s network — you buy a smart phone like the Nexus One, you want 3G service — the potential market is already going to be reduced significantly from that of the iPhone (AT&T) or Droid (Verizon). How many of those potential T-Mobile subscribers don’t already own an Android-based phone like the G1, MyTouch 3G, or Motorola Cliq? How many of these are still in two-year contracts? None of this adds up to readily exploitable market potential.
The Nexus One is (supposedly) going to soon be available for both the AT&T and Verizon networks, which should give a better indicator of how the device does against the iPhone and Droid on their “home turfs”.
